A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
